NB Power has its head stuck in uranium

NB Power seems to want to be a nuclear utility no matter how much it costs or whether or not the nuclear technology works because… well, just because. The utility’s 2023 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) released in July states that small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) are critical to developing a clean and cost-effective power grid in New Brunswick, although NB Power does not know when, or if, SMRs will become available or the cost.

Oh, and if the experimental SMRs are not available, the plan instead is to use wind and solar power, complemented by storage and biomass.

Why are renewables not the first choice for NB Power, given that wind and solar power costs are well known and very inexpensive, and storage cost is in free fall? The answer is not in the IRP.

In fact, the IRP suggests that SMRs are not critical since alternative pathways to a clean grid already exist without them. But NB Power wants to ignore that. The IRP states that integrating wind and solar instead, as an alternative to SMRs “… has not been studied in New Brunswick before.” Why has NB Power not undertaken this study?

Maybe because they won’t like the answer many researchers have already uncovered.

Wind, solar and storage are proven technologies with shrinking costs, and they outperform nuclear power on cost and reliability. Wind and solar are even predictable – meteorologists predict them every day with ample accuracy for power production.

With distributed generation, storage and inter-jurisdiction connections, New Brunswick can produce all its own power less expensively with renewables and without nuclear risk. The IRP’s poor assumptions about installed capacity, curtailment, storage, and use of interconnections are astounding. Properly deployed storage and interconnections significantly limit the amount of curtailment and required capacity.  The IRP failed to note that interconnections provide both a source of capacity and a market for excess wind and solar production and, according to the previous 2020 IRP, the cheapest option for capacity is using interconnections.

Three years ago, the 2020 IRP showed the cost of the existing (non-experimental) NB Power nuclear plant at Point Lepreau as $117/MWh or 11.7¢ per kWh. NB Power currently sells power to residents at 12.27¢ per kWh. The cost of nuclear power has likely risen since 2020, meaning NB Power has either negligible returns or more likely, loses money on every nuclear kWh sold to New Brunswick households, and that cost does not even include the cost of transmission, distribution and administration. Is increasing the NB Power debt with every nuclear transaction the reasonable power cost Minister Holland has in mind when he talks about the expected costs of SMNR power?

Why is NB Power’s head stuck in uranium? Many jurisdictions have moved or are moving to a clean electrical grid with renewable power. For example, these countries are already managing higher penetrations of wind power than NB Power: Demark 55%; Ireland 33%; UK 25%; Germany 22%. The same for some US states: Maine 27%, South Dakota, 55%, Idaho 17%. The South Australia power grid broke records when it recently ran for over 10 days on 100% wind and solar power.

The 2023 IRP describes SMRs, a non-existing technology, as a critical piece of the future grid but ignores both existing storage technologies such as thermal storage for district heating and closed loop pumped storage hydro. If novel technology is desired, consider those coming to market in the next two years, such as 100-hour iron-air batteries at less than half the cost of lithium-ion batteries, and Canadian closed-loop geothermal technology currently in pilot.

The Point Lepreau nuclear generating station has matured into a big white elephant. Unplanned and intermittent shutdowns are a main reason NB Power loses money every year, and the original reactor build and refurbishment are responsible for three-quarters of the utility’s massive debt. Last year, NB Power applied for a 25-year licence renewal for the Lepreau reactor; the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission instead gave it 10 years, citing the huge public interest (mostly negative), and mandated another licence review in 2027.

By then, the exorbitant costs of the speculative nuclear SMRs will be clear but New Brunswick needs to start now on a prudent pathway to a clean grid using renewable power. Will we continue to support blind faith in a speculative uranium-fuelled future, or will we go with renewable wind and sunshine? Minister Holland and NB Power would do well to start a re-think now about which way the wind is blowing.

Tom McLean is a retired software developer living in New Maryland. Dr. Susan O’Donnell is the lead researcher of the CEDAR project at St. Thomas University.